Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Our take on the WAC so far

Okay, we've been concerned about how weak the WAC teams have performed so far this season in non-conference games. Here's the cumulative evidence. From last place to first, here we go:

IDAHO 1-5

November 9 Cascade College - Moscow, ID, 110 - 52 (W)
November 13 Gonzaga - at Spokane, WA, 43 - 80 (L)
November 16 Washington State - at Pullman, WA, 43 - 74 (L)
November 24 UC Riverside - at Riverside, CA, 55 - 56 (L)
November 28 South Dakota State - Moscow, ID, 58 - 76 (L)
December 1 Idaho State - Cowan Spectrum, Pocatello, 69 - 71 (L)

The losses to UC Riverside, South Dakota State and in-state rival Idaho State are damaging. Now two of three were very close and on the road but losses are ultimately losses. To have only beaten Cascade College [who?] to date does not bode well for Idaho to be moving beyond last place in the WAC this season.

LOUISIANA TECH 1-4

November 10 Mississippi - at Starkville, MS, L, 45 - 75
November 16 UL-Lafayette - Ruston, LA, W, 64 - 56
November 20 UA-Pine Bluff - at Pine Bluff, AR, L, 67 - 54
November 24 UA-Little Rock - at Little Rock, AR, L, 49 - 63
November 28 Southeast Missouri - Ruston, LA - L, 54 - 59

Kerry Rupp has deliberately chosen to sacrifice [multiple redshirts & transfers sitting out] this season for a better future and such appears to be a solid blueprint to follow. However, he'll need to burst out of the gate very strong next season -- and should do so -- or the Ruston boosters may just try and persuade Karl Malone to suit up once again. Losses to the two Arkansas teams , followed by the Southeast Missouri defeat, definitely drag down the WAC's stature.

NEVADA 2-4

November 11 Central Florida - at Orlando, FL, 60 - 63 (L)
November 13 UC Irvine - at Anaheim, CA, 77 - 68 (W)
November 17 Santa Clara - Reno, NV, 67-54 (W)
November 24 UNLV - at Las Vegas, NV, 67 - 79 (L)
November 28 California - Reno, NV, 68 - 74 (L)
December 01 Pacific - at Stockton, CA, 70-66 (L)

Nevada has played teams tough as the final scores this season indicate but having just one battle-ready upperclassman -- Marcelus Kemp -- has hurt the Wolf Pack. 6-9 Demarshay Johnson is also a senior but he sat out last season and is still in 'rusty' mode, contributing but erratically. Consistency requires experience plus players playing together for some time -- there's no secret formula as Mark Fox has found out. Kemp should be somewhere in the NBA next year but we'll be curious to see if sophomore center JaVale McGee gets the hunger to turn pro after 2007-2008. Both his game and body need at the very least another year of college ball-- that plus the best incoming recruiting class in the WAC may persaude McGee to stick around and play college ball as a junior.

HAWAII 2-4

November 9 San Diego - Honolulu, HI, L 72-73
November 16 Illinois - Honolulu, HI, L 79-77
November 18 Alcorn State - Honolulu, HI, W 84-55
November 21 New Mexico - at Albuquerque, NM, L 60-89
November 27 Coppin State - at Honolulu, HI, W 79-58
December 2 San Diego - at San Diego, CA, L 67-81

Last year's departing seniors, Ahmet Gueye and Matt Lojeski, are being missed more than expected. A split with San Diego would have evened the record at a more acceptable 3-3 but Hawaii is lacking a consistent inside prescence so far and point play has been up and down. The return from injury of Matt Gibson should alleviate the latter concern and take some of the scoring load off of Bobby Nash but Hawaii still needs a big man to step forward. Coach Bob Nash's decision to re-focus recruiting more on prep players will pay off in the long run even if there is a rough patch in the near future because the Rainbow Warriors won't be living and dying on having JC transfers helping immediately, or not.

NEW MEXICO STATE 3-6

November 9 Ohio - at Athens, OH, 72 - 80 (L)
November 12 Duke - at Durham, NC, 61 - 86 (L)
November 14 UC Davis - Las Cruces, NM, 75 - 65 (W)
November 18 LeMoyne-Owen - Las Cruces, NM, 100 - 64 (W)
November 23 Texas - at Newark, NJ, 87 - 102 (L)
November 24 West Virginia - at Newark, NJ, 61 - 75 (L)
November 27 UTEP - at El Paso, TX, 76 - 84 (L)
November 30 Chicago State - Las Cruce, NM, 94 - 61 (W)
Dec 1 North Texas - Las Cruces, NM, 72 - 75 (L)

This is an upperclassmen-led squad expected to start better out of the gate but it has yet to achieve a win over a favored opponent. Herb Pope, if he is ever cleared, would certainly help as would more consistent play at the point. So far, it's been the Justin Hawkins Show but he needs one or two others to step up and consistently match his productive play. The last loss, to North Texas in Las Cruces, featured an Aggie 21-point lead in the second half -- ouch! Plus, just 2,000+ fans turned out to watch. This may not bode well for the overall WAC tournament attendance if Coach Marvin Menzies' team doesn't turn it on and fairly soon.

UTAH STATE 5-4

November 9 Southern Utah - Logan, UT, W, 60-49
November 10 at Weber State - Ogden, UT L, 78-71
November 12 Montana-Western - Logan, UT W, 77-58
November 15 at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, CA, L, 83-69
November 17 at UC Irvine Irvine, Calif. L, 70-51
November 20 Austin Peay Logan, UT, W, 71-68
November 23 vs. Vanderbilt - at South Padre, TX, L, 77-56
November 24 vs. Iowa - South Padre, TX, W, 75-62
December 1 vs. Santa Clara - Logan, UT, W, 71-65

Utah State and inconsistency have, prior to this season, been an oxymoron. Stew Morrill usually plugged in new players and the Aggies never missed a beat. But 2007-2008, with losses to Weber State, Cal Poly and UC Irvine, has proven to be much tougher than expected so far. Utah State has of late shown signs of betterment and still looks to be the pride of the WAC come March.

FRESNO STATE 4-3

November 4 Western Washington - Fresno, CA, W, 97-67
November 6 Fresno Pacific - Fresno, CA, W, 87-68
November 9 Portland - Fresno, CA, W, 75-68
November 10 Liberty - Fresno, CA, W, 71-62
November 11 San Diego State - Fresno, CA, L, 89-72
November 17 Bakersfield - at Bakersfield, CA, L, 65-64
November 21 Montana State - Fresno, CA, W, 86-74
November 24 Sam Houston State - at Huntsville, TX, L, 68-57
November 27 Winston-Salem State - at Winston-Salem, NC, W, 74-64

Here the question is which Fresno State shows up? The one that shoot well and gets some positive play inside or the evil twin that lacks coherency? The loss to Bakersfield is indicative as the Bulldogs should have been able to dribble-drive the Roadrunners into the ground. The defeat at the hands of Sam Houston State isn't as hurtful as it seems because the BearKats have beaten Texas Tech this season and -- believe it or not -- currently hold the #4 RPI ranking in the nation. Coach Steve Cleveland's turn towards recruiting prepsters this year should also pay off in the long run.

BOISE STATE 5-2

November 9 Utah Valley - Boise, ID, 73 - 72 (W) OT
November 13 Washington State - Boise, ID, 74 - 86 (L)
November 16 Montana State - at Bozeman, MT, 84 - 86 (L)
November 21 Montana Tech - Boise, ID, 107 - 53 (W)
November 24 Southern Utah - at Cedar City, UT, 75 - 73 (W) OT
November 28 San Diego - Boise, ID, 77 - 71 (W)
December 1 San Francisco - at San Francisco, CA, 91 - 81 (W)

The early loss to Montana State -- even being on the road -- didn't bode well for Coach Greg Graham's tenure but his Broncos have played Washington State tough and now also beaten San Diego and USF in the last two games. But Boise State basketball fans have seemingly taken a 'show-me' approach, wanting an unexpected and big win before truly believing, and the December 29 game in Boise against BYU [currently ranked #22 in the nation] could be such a telltale contest.

SAN JOSE STATE 3-1

November 15 Middle Tennessee - at Murfreesboro, TN, 78 - 77 (W)
November 16 Appalachian State - at Murfreesboro, TN, 64 - 62 (W)
November 17 Lipscomb - at Murfreesboro, TN, 72 - 79 (L)
November 30 Cal State Bakersfield - at Bakersfield, CA, 78 - 63 (W)

'Holy Toledo' as the late, great Bill King [we still believe he was born to announce basketball, not baseball] used to exclaim. San Jose State is the top team in the WAC, with the best W-L record. Yes, yes, yes, it is very early but a 3-1 record -- all games on the road -- cannot be discounted. Of all the teams in the WAC, SJSU to date has maintained the prestige of the WAC the most.

As a league, the WAC ]22-33 overall] is currently holding down 23rd place in the RPI index -- as an example, the Big Sky Conference is 19th. We couldn't find it but we believe the WAC placed 10th in RPI rankings at the end of last season. There's time to make up ground and some of the WAC teams are showing just that but such must be done in December and the days are ticking off.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Not a bad ranking at all. I'd put Nevada a little higher (not much though) because everyone else has at least one loss that's worse, and I'd put Fresno St lower (probably several spots lower) because they still don't have a solid win to go with the embarrassing loss at Bakersfield.

Slotting SJS #1 is debatable due to the relatively weak competition they've played, but no one else has done anything worth bragging about, so why not?

You can find rpi rankings going back to 1999 at kenpom.com. He shows the WAC as #9 the past two years.

Mainly wanted to let you know someone's reading. Keep up the good work!