Collect the majority of message board postings on the various WAC teams and the negative consensus leans towards canceling league play because no squad deserves to go Big Dancin' in 2010.
But first, it's ride a number of the coaches out of town on splinter-filled rails.
The fan-coach continuum has been this: love, love, love -- little seeds of doubt -- followed by 'that was another solid win' -- then no, no, this can't be happening -- soon, a hellacious cry of WTF, accompanied with a furiously detailed, spittle-flecked litany of professional coaching inadequacies, soon followed by a plaintive 'why was this stiff hired in the first place?'
Let's queue up Linda Ronstandt with: "Everyone loves a winner, but when you lose, you lose alone..."
Sometimes it's the demeanor of a coach that detractors goes after, believing that fire and brimstone is the sole path to coaching righteousness. Other times, it's the so-called manner in which his team performs. Once in a while, it's not exactly discernible.
But what is often forgotten is that ADs pay zero attention to message board postings -- personnel changes are dictated by the whims of big money donors, period.
So lets take a look at which coach -- if any -- is fulfilling such a fan prophecy of failure?
Boise State
The WAC coaches picked the Broncos to finish seventh in the soon-to-be-here season. Coach Greg Graham's team is currently 8-4 (road losses to Montana, Wyoming, Illinois and a fall at home to San Diego -- the wins not against any particular powerhouses). Such a record is a firing offense? Is Graham truly responsible for Anthony Thomas' less-than-stellar senior season to date? For Westly Perryman's bum ankles? Wow. Let the conference season at least play out first.
Fresno State
It's not like Steve Cleveland has forgotten what it takes to be successful. Up to this season, it's been a battle with one hand tied behind his back due to miscues by previous coaches and players.
He had Reggie Moore, who would have been a WAC all star at the point had he followed through on his commitment, but the 'voices' were telling Moore he could land higher and he ultimately reneged on his written word.
What also hurt in this situation was Fresno State (naturally) cutting loose all other point recruiting targets after Moore's signature was obtained and then having to scramble. One player usually doesn't make a world of difference but Moore's case would have been the exception and the point is a critical linchpin.
Cleveland has landed solid talent in his last two classes but they need seasoning at this point. How can anyone rightly say dump Cleveland, bring in so-and-so and we'll certainly be better? The Dogs are 5-7 right now.
Hawaii
The former powers-that-be wished to go in the proverbial other direction -- Riley Wallace was sent packing -- but the geniuses also crushed any hopes of the new coach having an initial productive recruiting haul.
After what was a longer than truly necessary search for a new head coach, the spotlight turned on Bob Nash, a UH assistant and he became the hire.
As for the current go-around, injuries to Bill Amis (season-ending) and Roderick Flemings, have definitely hindered the success of the Rainbow Warriors.
Nash can be criticized for not bringing in the necessary high schoolers required to establish both a foundation and the continuity that feeds a program's success but the 2009-2010 nature of the beast -- he has to win a certain number of games this season, 17 we believe -- required that he grab some experienced junior college and other transfers -- thus, his most recent class.
Hawaii is seen as a paradise -- rightfully so -- by many visitors. It's different for high school recruits who can't pop home for Thanksgiving or Christmas and rarely get to play in front of family and friends. As for transfers, it's a second and probably last chance which makes it more conducive to convincing such talents -- who often have different priorities than the high schoolers -- to come in and play.
UH is currently 6-6, minus any signature wins and some not-so-gentle losses. The home schedule should allow a win over Northwestern State and the BracketBuster game is at home but 9 wins in the WAC are looking tough.
We're not convinced Hawaii's basketball program can be filled via traditional means -- generally mostly preps -- and doubt any new coach can achieve such a status. Can someone new do a better job via D-1 and junior college transfers? That's a much harder argument to best.
Idaho
It's been a lovefest in Moscow between Coach Don Verlin and the Idaho faithful -- even if the road has gotten bumpier of late. The Vandals are 6-4 with a great win in Salt Lake City over Utah and another solid victory versus visiting Portland. But the 30-point loss in a rematch with Portland shivered some Vandal timbers. It was an out-of-sync Vandal squad -- in fact, it has been the last few games. Idaho does play Lewis & Clark (don't forget Sacajawea coming off the bench) in Boise before entering WAC play but that won't tell us much.
Mac Hopson and Steffan Johnson were supposed to dominate this season but Hopson's turnover rate is up and both can seemingly shoot a better percentage than they currently are doing. The talent is better than last season but the cohesion not as solid. Still, this is a team to fear as its upside potential remains strong.
This is also one team where, as best as we could locate, nobody has foolishly suggested a coaching change.
Louisiana Tech
Call LT the Belle of the WAC riding atop the league with an 11-2 record (road losses to New Mexico and Arizona). Granted, the opposition hasn't been the collective 11 Horseman of the Apocalypse but find a team that wouldn't want to trade for the current Bulldog record.
We're not seeing much quality depth, we don't understand Magnum Rolle at 11.8 points per game, plus DeAndre Brown's 57% at the foul line as the point causes concern. Also, Ola Ashaolu is at 48% on free throws so the ball must be kept out of their respective hands at the end of games.
On the plus side, Kyle Gibson is Kyle Gibson and on his way to being a WAC First Teamer and Ashaolu is second on the team in scoring and first in rebounding.
Like with Idaho, any Tech fan callings for a new coach are non-existent.
Nevada
Amazingly, there haven't been any calls for Mark Fox's return. We use the description 'amazingly' because there always seems to be some who bask in the good ol' days and Coach David Carter 2009-2010 squad hasn't steamrolled the opposition (not that such should be the expectation this season).
Remember the baseball phrase of "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain"? For 7-5 Nevada, it's been pray that the starting five remain healthy because the bench is 'developing' shall we say. An early win versus Houston was promising and coming close in the score against BYU (110-104) was solid but it's evident that the starting quintet is going to have to average close to 30 minutes a game and Babbitt and Johnson even more. Ray Kraemer has surprised as a reserve with his long distance shooting but that's been pretty much it for consistency off the bench.
One concern: will the cumulative up-and-down the court mileage play a factor, especially come tourney time, with back-to-back games, but also late in the season?
New Mexico State
The Aggies are 6-6, having gained the efforts of Wendell McKines in the last two games.
Fans have been upset, expecting more in the season thus far, despite the absence of McKines and with Troy Gillenwater still on the sidelines.
Is the concern righteous?
Was the 87-80 NMSU win over UTEP in El Paso what should have been the level of play this season? Were the large point differential losses versus St. Mary's UCLA, plus falling twice to New Mexico, indicative of a coaching problem? Of all the games on the Aggie schedule, we expected a better showing -- actually a win -- against host Fullerton, plus losses with lesser point differentials against the Gaels and Bruins.
Ultimately, minus two players expected to be on the court for close to thirty minutes a night has simply been too much to overcome. Hamidu Rahman needs help up front and that has been absent, thereby allowing greater than usual defensive focus on Jahmar Young and Jonathan Gibson.
Yes, the charge can be made that Marvin Menzies recruited/re-recruited the guys who have been missing and therefore the responsibility rests on him. Ultimately it will. But what WAC team could lose the production of both McKines and Gillenwater types and remain competitive? The absence of the pair required shifts in responsibilities, a lessening of focus on playing to strengths because some personnel were asked to do what was often a stretch, and so on.
Let's see how the Aggies do from here on out in WAC competition. Plus, who knows, maybe Gillenwater will become eligible in January and then truly accurate judgments can be made.
San Jose State
The season began with making Washington sweat for a homecourt win, followed by a four-point loss that hurt to UC Riverside (but the Highlanders have yet to lose at home this season). Back in San Jose, Pacific was overtaken at the end and St. Mary's was down by 12 at the half until the Gaels exploded in the second 20 minutes. A road loss at San Francisco was a game that could have been won, one at UC Irvine was nabbed with a strong second half, a blowout at Northern Colorado close to inexplicable but followed by topping rival Santa Clara across town.
So it's 5-5 thus far with moments, stretches, even halves of absolute synchronicity but not yet full games.
Having two 'bigs' sidelined of late hasn't helped matters, leaving any set rotation impossible at this point.
The message boards have been full of the usual -- applause for wins, derision for losses. Idaho coming to town on January 4 will be a great test but it sure would be nice to have a full squad available for such an exam.
Utah State
There has certainly been no call for any coach replacement in the Land of Logan -- why would anyone pay attention anyway? Concern about the why of certain recruits -- yes but that is normal. Stew Morrill is staying as long as he wishes, period. The Aggies are 9-4.
The home win against BYU was a Rose feather in the Aggie cap, the one-point loss to Utah in Salt Lake City a heartbreaker, the five point home loss to St. Mary's a surprise to some that shouldn't have bewildered anyone -- but the 13-point loss to and in Long Beach was unexpected. However, Pooh Williams was hurt for a while, Nate Bendall was new to D-1 and probably most importantly, a set of newcomers needed to be broken in so as to hopefully be productive come the WAC schedule.
SUMMARY
Yes, any coach who doesn't win 'enough' games will be let go -- such in inherent in the position, it goes unsaid. This is regardless of the yada, yada, yada spouted about positive graduation rates, players not filling up the local jail cells, etc.
Another 'truth' is that all of us WAC fans sincerely believe better recruits can be lured to the teams we support. This belief is simply false, however well-intentioned. A new coach does not automatically translate into more bountiful recruiting. The right coach makes it a possibility but nobody knows ahead of time despite assertions of certitude.
Okay, have at it.
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